New Jersey/Massachusetts: The Next Battleground States?
March 20, 2008 by Dan Solis
On the podcast last Sunday I talked about McCain beating Obama in the regularly blue state of New Jersey by two points (45-43%). In the same poll, Clinton leads McCain in New Jersey 50-39%. Of course my co-hosts tried to dismiss this as early polling, but I don’t see any reason why a legitimate Democratic nominee would be losing in a state the Democratic nominee has won since Bill Clinton won his first term as president in 1992. In all fairness, the most recent poll brings the race even tighter, McCain and Obama each at 43%, while Clinton still holds her edge over McCain 47-42% in New Jersey.
Today brings even more compelling news, McCain and Obama are now tied in Massachusetts, 47-47%, while Clinton leads McCain in Mass. by 13 points (55-42%). Interestingly enough, one of Obama’s major endorsers and a superdelegate is the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick. You might remember the controversy surrounding remarks made by Obama, which later were compared to remarks made by Gov. Patrick, each eerily similar. Not even Deval Patrick can assuredly win Massachusetts for Obama in November. Patrick wasn’t even able to deliver the state on Super Tuesday when Clinton beat Obama 56.2-40.8%.
Once again, the facts are that Obama is not showing competitively in states that need to be in the Democratic column in November. And to assume that these states will turn blue for Democrats whomever the nominee is in November just doesn’t play out with what we’re seeing right now. And to dismiss these early polls really misses the fact that if Obama can’t show a commanding lead right now, as the presumptive Democratic nominee, what will November hold for Democrats with Obama at the top of the ticket? It could take just one state to flip the map, and hand it to McCain.
**Update**
Ohio goes for McCain over Obama, 50-43%. While Clinton beats McCain in Ohio, 50-44%.
In Missouri, McCain beats Obama handily, 53-39%. Clinton is more competitive, yet still loses, 48-46%.
I’m so sure that the Democrats will find some kind of way to lose in 2008 that I’ve carved “Dems lose 2008″ on a stone and put it in my backyard. You might think that there’s no way that the Democrats will lose this election, not after George W. Bush’s eight years as president, but the Democrats always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s ridiculous. I feel that, if Obama is nominated, the Democrats will lose (as the polls that you list demonstrate), but, contrary to your thinking, I also feel that the Democrats will lose if Clinton is nominated. In my own personal prediction, if Clinton’s nominated, there’ll be controversy about the superdelegates, Florida, Michigan, and all of the other manuevers that she used to win, and some Democrats will vote for McCain because they feel that they’ve been robbed of proper representation. That’s just prediction and punditry, however.
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