McCain’s Michigan Pullout a Tricky Manuever

[cross posted at Michigan Youth Political Alliance]

Just several hours before the vice presidential debate, McCain withdraws his campaign troops from Michigan to redeploy them in other battleground states such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Clever decision? This campaign tactic could be so much more than what it appears to be at the surface.

Aside from the obvious move to minimize the media attention on his decision by announcing his decision when the media spotlight was clearly focused on the vice presidential debate, there is a lot more suspicious activity behind the scenes. On the surface, McCain’s pullout appears as a sign of weakness for his campaign. Prior to his pullout, McCain began losing traction in the polls, ceding to Obama approximately a 7 point lead. Michigan was a state that had swung blue in the past 4 presidential elections. Obama was picking up support because of his stronger economic focus and more concrete economic policy proposals in comparison with McCain–a huge issues to a state dominated by economic hardship and seeking to escape it.

In his national and state campaign, McCain was inconsistent with his economic positions: declaring the fundamentals of the economy to be sound in one moment then halting his campaign to focus on the bailout crisis in the next. Obama capitalized on this inconsistency to weaken the legitimacy of McCain’s campaign platform. Even during the vice presidential debate, Palin found such inconsistency to be hard to defend, and Biden hit this point home.

However, Michigan was not lost for McCain. In the previous two elections, Michigan could have swayed to either side. Michigan is home to the historical Reagan Democrats, a voter bloc that could easily be captured by McCain. Michigan’s Republican Party is one of the less ideologically extreme conservative factions in the nation, attracting much support from a wide array of people. Obama’s campaign was strong among the youth in Michigan and people were unsatisfied by McCain’s economic solutions, but Michigan was still a battleground state. It could be swayed, perhaps, with more powerful backing from Mitt Romney and other political figures Michigan voters could identify themselves with. Michigan was still on the edge.

The most visible effects of this consists of two parts–McCain is turning away from a focus on the economy, and Michigan Republicans are going to be significantly hindered in their own fight for seats at the state Capitol. McCain’s withdrawal is a sign of dropping attention on Michigan’s sole issue, the economy, and that might even benefit McCain, considering his weak platform on the issue. However, for the most part, McCain is revealing his cowardice in trying to avoid the elephant in the room (as if voters can’t see it). If he can’t deal with economic issues (voter’s number one issue for this election), he won’t be able to win voters back with foreign policy experience, a reform agenda, or his other pluses.

Michigan GOP is going to face an uphill battle in upcoming races–especially the most critical ones for “Joe Knollenberg’s 9th District seat in Oakland County and Tim Walberg’s 7th District seat stretching from western Washtenaw County to Battle Creek.” Plenty of GOP voters could stay home because McCain’s move hurts party mobilization and support. And since turnout is key for the GOP to win the seats on those two Congressional races, McCain’s move will directly hinder party strength on the Capitol.

Now, let’s talk about the juicy material: what is going on McCain’s head? What is his real strategy? Democrats are absolutely justified in being skeptical about his move–considering it a feint to weaken Obama’s campaign in Michigan, a key swing state for this year. McCain is definitely trying a sneaky tactic. According to the Detroit News:

The Obama campaign source expressed surprise that McCain, who had been airing a massive TV ad campaign in Michigan, abruptly decided to pull back. But the source noted that the Republican National Committee was still airing roughly $1 million worth of ads in Michigan markets, and that the National Rifle Association and other independent groups are continuing to attack Obama with TV and mailed advertising.

There is a strong possibility that McCain will return to Michigan in the few days before the general election and pummel Michigan hard with money, advertisements, events, etc. when the Obama campaign least expects him to. Such a tactic could barely shift the polls in his favor, winning him Michigan’s 17 electoral votes. Thus, I highly doubt McCain has completely pulled out of Michigan. If he still has so much money here, it is unlikely his withdrawal of his campaign staff is a sign of weakness. By appearing weak in Michigan, however, McCain could and probably will pull off an “October surprise” to pick up its votes.

[cross posted at Michigan Youth Political Alliance]